{"id":20046,"date":"2026-03-12T19:45:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T16:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/staging.igamingamerika.com\/?p=20046"},"modified":"2026-03-12T19:45:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T16:45:48","slug":"spa-flags-concerns-over-prediction-markets-following-kalshis-entry-into-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igamingamerika.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/12\/spa-flags-concerns-over-prediction-markets-following-kalshis-entry-into-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"SPA Flags Concerns Over Prediction Markets Following Kalshi\u2019s Entry into Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Brazilian betting regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), has clarified that presently, no local companies are authorized to operate prediction markets in the country. This statement comes amid ongoing scrutiny following the recent entry of<a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> Kalshi<\/a>, a prominent prediction markets operator, into Brazil.<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Brazil SPA Kalshi<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, Kalshi announced a partnership with Brazilian brokerage firm XP International, marking Brazil as the first market outside the United States where the platform would be accessible to the general public. This move also signaled the first time a prediction markets operator had gone live in the country. In response, the SPA issued a statement emphasizing its ongoing, \u201ccontinuously and technically,\u201d monitoring of the situation both domestically and internationally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brazil has yet to establish a formal regulatory framework specific to prediction markets. However, the SPA has engaged with fixed-odds betting operators to discuss the emerging industry. \u201cThe prediction market is part of the Secretariat\u2019s internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies under way,\u201d the SPA noted. \u201cIt should be noted that, at present, there are no Brazilian companies formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The regulator also mentioned that it has received a technical note from industry players evaluating predictive markets and is approaching the matter carefully, with institutional responsibility in mind. \u201cThe Secretariat has received a technical note from companies in the sector presenting assessments of so-called predictive markets and is addressing the issue with caution, institutional responsibility and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, seeking to ensure consistency with the current legal framework,\u201d it explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The SPA emphasized that any regulatory decision regarding prediction markets would depend on the outcomes of technical analyses, likely in collaboration with agencies such as the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). It remains uncertain whether prediction markets will ultimately be classified under the CVM\u2019s jurisdiction or fall under the Ministry of Finance\u2019s SPA. In the United States, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, highlighting a different legal landscape.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The entrance of Kalshi into Brazil\u2019s market has raised concerns among fixed-odds betting operators, who have voiced their apprehensions to the SPA. This development coincides with a period of turbulence for the legal betting industry in Brazil, which only recently launched on January 1, 2025. Since then, efforts to increase the sector\u2019s tax burden have met with limited success, although a gradual tax hike to 15% by 2028 has been approved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Read also: <a href=\"http:\/\/staging.igamingamerika.com\/betting-sector-in-brazil-opposes-lulas-push-for-gambling-ban\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Betting Sector in Brazil Opposes Lula\u2019s Push for Gambling Ban<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kalshi\u2019s debut also occurred shortly after a provocative statement from President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, who called on the government to unite in efforts to ban online betting. During a speech for International Women\u2019s Day, Lula declared, \u201cGambling dens are prohibited in Brazil. It makes no sense to allow gambling to enter homes, indebting families through cell phones. Let\u2019s work together, uniting the government, Congress and the judiciary, so that these digital casinos don\u2019t continue to indebt families and destroy homes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Legal experts suggest that the presence of prediction markets could further complicate Brazil\u2019s already complex gambling landscape. Andre Santa Ritta, a partner at the law firm Pinheiro Neto Advogados, indicated that prediction markets remain in a legal gray area. \u201cIn Brazil, you have this regulatory grey zone in which we don\u2019t know yet where to place the predictions market industry, because it\u2019s not iGaming and it\u2019s not within this framework of the fixed-odds betting industry,\u201d he explained. \u201cWe do not have regulations saying it is a type of derivative, which is how they regulate it in the US, so in Brazil the predictions market is still in a grey zone, which means you have a lot of opportunities for people willing to take the risks, and at the same time taking consumers out of the regulated iGaming industry. It\u2019s another challenge.\u201d<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\"> Brazil SPA Kalshi<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Brazilian betting regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), has clarified that presently, no local companies are authorized to operate prediction markets in the country. This statement comes amid ongoing scrutiny following the recent entry of Kalshi, a prominent prediction markets operator, into Brazil. Brazil SPA Kalshi Earlier this week, Kalshi announced a &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20047,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[198,22],"tags":[207,313,5],"class_list":["post-20046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brazil-gambling-news","category-news","tag-gaming-in-brazil","tag-prediction-markets","tag-sports-betting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SPA Flags Concerns Over Kalshi entry into Brazil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SPA has clarified that no local companies are authorized to operate prediction markets in Brazil following the recent entry of Kalshi.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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