The Brazilian betting regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), has clarified that presently, no local companies are authorized to operate prediction markets in the country. This statement comes amid ongoing scrutiny following the recent entry of Kalshi, a prominent prediction markets operator, into Brazil. Brazil SPA Kalshi
Earlier this week, Kalshi announced a partnership with Brazilian brokerage firm XP International, marking Brazil as the first market outside the United States where the platform would be accessible to the general public. This move also signaled the first time a prediction markets operator had gone live in the country. In response, the SPA issued a statement emphasizing its ongoing, “continuously and technically,” monitoring of the situation both domestically and internationally.
Brazil has yet to establish a formal regulatory framework specific to prediction markets. However, the SPA has engaged with fixed-odds betting operators to discuss the emerging industry. “The prediction market is part of the Secretariat’s internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies under way,” the SPA noted. “It should be noted that, at present, there are no Brazilian companies formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment.”
The regulator also mentioned that it has received a technical note from industry players evaluating predictive markets and is approaching the matter carefully, with institutional responsibility in mind. “The Secretariat has received a technical note from companies in the sector presenting assessments of so-called predictive markets and is addressing the issue with caution, institutional responsibility and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, seeking to ensure consistency with the current legal framework,” it explained.
The SPA emphasized that any regulatory decision regarding prediction markets would depend on the outcomes of technical analyses, likely in collaboration with agencies such as the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). It remains uncertain whether prediction markets will ultimately be classified under the CVM’s jurisdiction or fall under the Ministry of Finance’s SPA. In the United States, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, highlighting a different legal landscape.
The entrance of Kalshi into Brazil’s market has raised concerns among fixed-odds betting operators, who have voiced their apprehensions to the SPA. This development coincides with a period of turbulence for the legal betting industry in Brazil, which only recently launched on January 1, 2025. Since then, efforts to increase the sector’s tax burden have met with limited success, although a gradual tax hike to 15% by 2028 has been approved.
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Kalshi’s debut also occurred shortly after a provocative statement from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who called on the government to unite in efforts to ban online betting. During a speech for International Women’s Day, Lula declared, “Gambling dens are prohibited in Brazil. It makes no sense to allow gambling to enter homes, indebting families through cell phones. Let’s work together, uniting the government, Congress and the judiciary, so that these digital casinos don’t continue to indebt families and destroy homes.”
Legal experts suggest that the presence of prediction markets could further complicate Brazil’s already complex gambling landscape. Andre Santa Ritta, a partner at the law firm Pinheiro Neto Advogados, indicated that prediction markets remain in a legal gray area. “In Brazil, you have this regulatory grey zone in which we don’t know yet where to place the predictions market industry, because it’s not iGaming and it’s not within this framework of the fixed-odds betting industry,” he explained. “We do not have regulations saying it is a type of derivative, which is how they regulate it in the US, so in Brazil the predictions market is still in a grey zone, which means you have a lot of opportunities for people willing to take the risks, and at the same time taking consumers out of the regulated iGaming industry. It’s another challenge.” Brazil SPA Kalshi
